NATO has no plan to defeat Russia

15. 5. 2024 / Ivan Větvička

 

For NATO, the war in Ukraine is only one item on the agenda, and aid to the attacked country is provided in a “bureaucratic”, not a  “military” way.

The alliance member states are (or have been) competing to provide aid, and a large number of weapons and other material is indeed flowing into Ukraine, but there is no coordination. And so, the Ukrainians sometimes get tanks, sometimes ammunition, and maybe one day they will get Western fighter planes, but they have  never had all the necessary weapons in sufficient quantities for a successful offensive.

Exactly this lack of coordination and unwillingness to attack targets in the deep interior of Russia is the result of the absence of a plan for a victorious counteroffensive and the unwillingness to clearly express our determination to win. But without the will to win and great coordinated efforts, we will not win.

Russia can defeat us, not because of its own capabilities, but mainly because of our tardiness. The situation will not work out in our favour on its own. No one has ever won by “letting the front rot”.

Ukraine must realise that it cannot rely entirely on us. Aid from the West is large, but it flows uncoordinated, irregularly, and if Donald Trump wins in the US, it may weaken significantly.

Selected following passages from the dialogue with Czech representatives to NATO (IV. – author of the article):

IV.: “Does the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have a plan to defeat Russia?”

Jakub Landovský, Czech Ambassador to NATO:

“Russia says it is at war with NATO. We must be careful. We say that Ukraine must regain control of all its territory, including Crimea, but no one says that the goal is to defeat Russia. When Russia lost a war in the past, it was good, for example the Crimean War. When Russia wins, it means oppression. The Russians should lose in Ukraine. But no one says NATO wants to defeat them. Let us be careful with such words.”

IV.: “So we really do not have a plan to win, and no one is working on one?”

Matti Tetřev, 2nd Secretary of the Permanent Delegation of the Czech Republic to NATO:

“Ukraine must continue defending itself until Russia starts negotiating about an armistice. We need to exhaust the Russian economy by an arms race, like United States did so during the Cold War.”

IV.: “But we’re not arming! Well, O.K., we are arming, but not enough.”

Matti Tetřev:

“The Russians have switched over to a war economy. The party that proposes the same in our country will lose the elections.”

(End of dialogue transcription)

And what should the Ukrainians do in such circumstances?

First of all, they must admit the true state of the situation and abandon their false hopes. The West is helping them and will continue to help to some extent, but it will not win the war for them. They must learn from their hated enemy and dig in thoroughly.

It is necessary to build solid mutil-zonal  fortifications and lay extensive minefields not only near the front where fighting is now taking place, but in all directions from which a Russian attack is possible, even if it does not seem likely now.

It will be very expensive, labour intensive, and not as elegant as the spectacular use of high-tech weapons, but it is an effective solution that Ukraine can take on its own.